【ECON201302】

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第131期）

【时间】2013年3月20日（周三）12：15－13：45

【地点】明主0304教室

【主讲】陈朴　中国人民大学经济学院助理教授 明尼苏达大学经济学博士

【主题】House Price Booms and the Current Account (written by Klaus Adam, Pei Kuang, and Albert Marcet, NBER Working Paper, 2011)
　　　 【摘要】A simple open economy asset pricing model can account for the house price and current account dynamics in the G7 over the years 2001-2008. The model features rational households, but assumes that households entertain subjective beliefs about price behavior and update these using Bayesian rule. The resulting beliefs dynamics considerably propagate economic shocks and crucially contribute to replicating the empirical evidence. Belief dynamics can temporarily delink house prices from fundamentals, so that low interest rates can fuel a house price boom. House price booms, however, are not necessarily synchronized across countries and the model is consistent with the heterogeneous response of house prices across the G7 following the reduction in real interest rates at the beginning of the millennium. The response to interest rates depends sensitively on agents` beliefs at the time of the interest rate reduction, which in turn are a function of the country specific history prior to the year 2000.
【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。

联系人：陈伟泽　　E_mail: sysu2006vc@126.com

更多讲座信息欢迎访问se.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn

经济学院

中国经济改革与发展研究院