【ECON201219】

宏观经济学研讨会
（总第124期）

【时间】2012年11月20日（周二）12：15－13：45
【地点】明主0409教室
【主讲】张略钊 中国人民大学汉青研究院
【主题】Global Demographic Trends and Social Security Reform (written　by Orazio Attanasio, Sagiri Kitao, and Giovanni Violante, Journal of Monetary Economics, 2007)
【摘要】How sustainable are the current social security systems in the deve- loped economies, given the projected demographic trends? The most recent lite- rature has answered this question through dynamic general equilibrium models in a closed-economy framework. This paper provides a new quantitative bench- mark of analysis for this question represented by a two-region model (South and North) of the world economy where capital flows across regions. The timing and the extent of the demographic transition – and the associated economic forces shaping capital accumulation and equilibrium factor prices – are very different in the two regions. Thus, the projected paths of interest rate and wage rate in the North diverge substantially between closed and open economy. We perform a wide range of policy experiments under both scenarios. Our main conclusion is that if one is interested in quantifying the path of the fiscal variables needed to keep the social security system viable or to finance a transition towards a fully funded system, then these two benchmarks yield similar results.
【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型（尤其是Bewley模型）并使用计算机模拟研究中国经济改革与发展的重大问题。

联系人：陈伟泽　　E_mail: sysu2006vc@126.com
更多讲座信息欢迎访问se.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn

经济学院
中国经济改革与发展研究院