产业经济学研讨会

【时间】2016年11月18日（周五）12：00－13：30
【地点】明主934会议室
【主讲】 吴泽南 助理教授 北京大学经济学院
【主题】 Multidimensional Private Information, Market Structure and Insurance Markets
【点评】李三希 中国人民大学经济学院副教授
【摘要】A large empirical literature found that the correlation between insurance purchase and expost realization of risk is often statistically insignificant or negative. This is inconsistent with the predictions from the classic models of insurance a la Akerlof (1970), Pauly (1974) and Rothschild and Stiglitz (1976) where consumers have one-dimensional heterogeneity in their risk types. It is suggested that selection based on multidimensional private information, e.g., risk and risk preference types, may be able to explain the empirical findings. In this paper, we systematically investigate whether selection based on multidimensional private information in risk and risk preferences, can, under different market structures, result in a negative correlation in equilibrium between insurance coverage and ex post realization of risk. We show that if the insurance market is perfectly competitive, selection based on multidimensional private information does not result in negative correlation property in equilibrium, unless there is a sufficiently high loading factor. If the insurance market is monopolistic or imperfectly competitive, however, we show that it is possible to generate negative correlation property in equilibrium when risk and risk preference types are sufficiently negative dependent, a notion we formalize using the concept of copula. We also clarify the connections between some of the important concepts such as adverse/advantageous selection and positive/negative correlation property.
【主讲者简介】吴泽南 北京大学经济学院助理教授。2015年毕业于美国宾夕法尼亚大学，获经济学博士学位。研究领域为产业组织理论，应用微观理论。


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