报告摘要：
The exact specification and motivation for an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) is the subject of a vast literature in environmental economics. A remarkably diverse set of econometric approaches and candidate regressors have been proposed, which highlights the degree of model uncertainty surrounding the relationship between environmental quality and pollution. We introduce Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to the EKC analysis to examine: (a) whether a sulphur dioxide EKC exists, and if so (b) which income/pollution specification is supported by the data. BMA addresses model uncertainty as part of the empirical strategy by incorporating the uncertainty about the validity of competing theories into the posterior distribution. We find only weak support for an EKC, which disappears altogether when we address issues relating to the extreme oversampling of two industrialized countries in the sample. In contrast, our results highlight the relative importance of political economy and site-specific variables (specifically executive constraints and precipitation variation) in explaining pollution outcomes. Trade is shown to play an important indirect role, as it moderates the influence of the composition effect on pollution.

作者简介：
Jeffrey C. Begun, Ph.D. is currently a full-time lecturer in University of Washington, Tacoma. His doctoral dissertation is titled A Bayesian Analysis of Model Uncertainty and Development. His research interests are focused on environmental economics, international Economics, economic growth and development. The paper he will discuss in the seminar has been published on Environment and Development Economics. The projects he is working on include “Different Growth for Different Folks? Reexamining East Asian Growth Determinants through Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA)”, and “Initial Conditions and Heterogeneity in Cross-Country Growth: An Iterative Bayesian Model Averaging (IBMA) Analysis”. He serves as editorial board member for International Journal of Sustainable Economy, PPE Paper Prize committee chair and so on.

能源经济学研讨会（Energy Economics Seminar）由中国人民大学经济学院能源经济系定期推出，旨在为研究中国能源经济问题的学者提供一个交流的平台。

联系人：魏楚(xiaochu1979@gmail.com)

　中国人民大学 经济学院能源经济系