【ECON201212】

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第117期）

【时间】2012年9月18日（周二）12：15－13：45

【地点】明主0416教室

【主讲】唐诗磊 中国人民大学经济学院

【主题】Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend（written by Aguiar and Gopinath, JPE, 2007）

【摘要】Emerging market business cycles exhibit strongly countercyclical current accounts, consumption volatility that exceeds income volatility, and “sudden stops” in capital inflows. These features contrast with developed small open economies. Nevertheless, we show that a standard model characterizes both types of markets. Motivated by the frequent policy regime switches observed in emerging markets, our premise is that these economies are subject to substantial volatility in trend growth. Our methodology exploits the information in consumption and net exports to identify the persistence of productivity. We find that shocks to trend growth – rather than transitory fluctuations around a stable trend – are the primary source of fluctuations in emerging markets. The key features of merging market business cycles are then shown to be consistent with this underlying income process in an otherwise standard equilibrium model.

【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型（尤其是Bewley模型）并使用计算机模拟研究中国经济改革与发展的重大问题。

联系人：陈伟泽　　E_mail: sysu2006vc@126.com

更多讲座信息欢迎访问se.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn

经济学院

中国经济改革与发展研究院