能源经济学研讨会

【总第62期】

Temperature and Economic Growth:
New Evidence from Total Factor Productivity
本次能源经济学研讨会邀请到加州大学圣塔芭芭拉分校的张鹏做学术演讲。
时间：9月23日，星期三，11:40—13:00
地点：中国人民大学明德主楼734会议室
报告摘要：
Understanding the relationship between temperature and economic growth is acritical component in designing optimal climate policies. This paper provides the first study that documents the relationship between daily temperature and total factor productivity (TFP). Using detailed firm-level production data from nearly two million observations in the Chinese manufacturing sector from 1998 to 2007, I find an inverted U-shaped relationship between daily temperature and TFP. By contrast, the effects of temperature on labor and capital inputs are limited. Moreover, the response function between daily temperature and output is almost identical with temperature and TFP, suggesting that reduction in TFP in response to high temperatures is the primary driver behind output losses. A medium-run climate prediction indicates that climate change will reduce TFP by 4.18%, and result in output losses by 5.71%. Given the invariance of TFP to the intensity of labor and capital inputs, Chinese manufacturing may be less likely to avoid climate damages simply by factor allocation. 
作者简介： 
Peng Zhang is a Ph.D. Candidate in the Department of Economics University of California Santa Barbara. He has published in leading journals on Temperature, Economic Growth and Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture. His current research interests include Climate Change and Land Cover in China, The Effect of Air Pollution on Traffic Fatalities, Evaluating the Compliance of the High-Temperature Subsidy Policy in China and Climate Change and Migrant Workers. He won Departmental Fellowship in Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, UC Santa Barbara in 2012. 
能源经济学研讨会（Energy Economics Seminar）由中国人民大学经济学院能源经济系定期推出，旨在为研究中国能源经济问题的学者提供交流的平台。 
 联系人：宋枫（songfeng@ruc.edu.cn）  

中国人民大学 经济学院能源经济系