时间：2025年4月14日12:00-13:30（周一）

地点：明德主楼734

主讲人：翟润卓 中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院助理教授

主持人：胡思捷

主题：Malthus Was Right and Wrong: Understanding China’s Economic Growth Over Two Millennia

讲座简介：We construct, for the first time, a decadal GDP dataset for China from 220 BCE to 1949 CE, which, when linked to adjusted post-1949 data based on official surveys, offers a clear view of China’s economic performance over the past two millennia. More importantly, the continuous series enables testing of Malthusian theory. Our findings indicate that Malthus’s prediction of stagnant per capita income in pre-modern economies likely applies only to the last millennium. Earlier periods in China, representing at least a quarter of the global population, did not experience prolonged stagnation. Furthermore, Malthus’s assumption that population growth outpaces food production may not universally apply to all pre-modern periods. Theoretical social scientists should approach Malthusian theory with caution when describing premodern economies.

个人简介：翟润卓，牛津大学经济史博士，中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院助理教授。师从英国科学院院士、国际著名经济史学家Stephen Broadberry教授。目前研究兴趣包括：长期经济增长，农业经济史，历史国民经济核算等。研究见诸于Economic Development and Cultural Change (已接收), Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Economic History Review, 《经济学家》，《经济思想史学刊》等国内外知名期刊。博士论文Toward the Great Divergence: Economic Growth in the Yangzi Delta, 1393—1953获2025年亚洲太平洋经济和商业史年会两年一届的最佳博士论文奖，该奖项旨在奖励亚洲太平洋范围内经济史研究的最佳博士论文。