【ECON20171219】  
      宏观经济学研讨会          （总第234期）      
【时间】2017年11月22日（周三）12：15－13：45  
【地点】明商0202教室  
【主讲】周璇 中国人民大学经济学院助理教授  
【主题】 Constrained Discretion and Central Bank Transparency（F. Bianchi & L. Melosi, FRB of Chicago Working Paper, 2016）  
【摘要】We develop and estimate a general equilibrium model in which monetary policy can deviate from active inflation stabilization and agents face uncertainty about the nature of these deviations. When observing a deviation, agents conduct Bayesian learning to infer its likely duration. Under constrained discretion, only short deviations occur: Agents are confident about a prompt return to the active regime, macroeconomic uncertainty is low, welfare is high. However, if a deviation persists, agents’ beliefs start drifting, uncertainty accelerates, and welfare declines. If the duration of the deviations is announced, uncertainty follows a reverse path. For the U.S. transparency lowers uncertainty and increases welfare.  
【主持】陈彦斌 教授  
 
 
    人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。  
联系人：刘哲希    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com  
资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html  
更多讲座信息请访问：econ.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。  
   
   
      中国人民大学经济学院          中国经济改革与发展研究院