【ECON201313】

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第142期）

【时间】2013年9月25日（周三）12：15－13：45

【地点】明商0202教室

【主讲】郭豫媚　中国人民大学经济学院

【主题】Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals (written by Thomas J. Sargent and Paolo Surico, American Economic Review, 2011)

【摘要】By extending his data, we document the instability of two low-frequency regression coefficients, namely, of inflation on money growth and an interest rate on money growth, respectively, that Lucas (1980) used to express two empirical propositions representing the quantity theory of money. We impute the differences in these regression coefficients to differences in monetary policies across periods. Estimation of a DSGE model over a subsample approximating Lucas’s yields parameters that imply values of the two long-run regression coefficients that confirm Lucas’s results for his particular sample period. But perturbing parameters of the monetary policy rule away from values estimated over Lucas’s subsample alters the population values of the two regression coefficients in ways that reproduce the pattern of instability observed over our longer sample.

【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。

联系人：陈小亮　　E_mail: chenxiaoliang2200@126.com

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经济学院

中国经济改革与发展研究院