数量经济学研讨会      
      时间：5月15日 中午12:30-13:30          地点：明主623

报告人：余昌华 （北京大学国家发展研究院）

Title: Production Network and International Fiscal Spillovers (joint with M. Devereux and K. Gente)          
         Abstract: In a context of a liquidity trap, ?scal policy remains an e?cient tool to deal with ?uctuations of economic activity. In open economies, the multiplier e?ect of this ?scal policy may be associated with an international spillover e?ect. The literature highlights large multiplier and spillover e?ects of ?scal policy whereas these e?ects remain small in the theoretical literature. Considering international production networks, this papers develops a theoretical explanation consistent with the size of ?scal spillover e?ects suggested by the empirical literature. We proceed in two steps. First, we develop a two-country general equilibrium model with production network and ?nancial frictions based on Saki Bigio and Jennifer La’O (2016) where labour is not mobile between countries. We show analytically that in a symmetric two-country world, the network does not in?uence the size of multiplier and spillover e?ects when the ?scal policy is symmetric. However, in this symmetric world, when public spending increases in only one of the two countries, international production network matters for multiplier and spillover e?ects. The more connected nodes are, the lower the multiplier e?ect. The spillover e?ect is ?rst increasing with the connection of the network and then decreasing. Contrasting with Daron Acemoglu and Vasco M. Carvalho and Asuman Ozdaglar and Alireza Tahbaz Salehi (2012), we get both upstream and downstream e?ects following a ?scal shock. Because of labour immobility between countries, this ?scal shock leads to a terms of trade adjustment, driving contagion.          
         Bigio S. and Jennifer La’O (2016) “Financial Frictions in Production Networks”, NBER Working Papers.          
         Acemoglu D. and Vasco M. Carvalho and Asuman Ozdaglar and Alireza Tahbaz Salehi (2012),“The Network Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations”,Econometrica, 2012, 80, 5,1977-2016.          
         余昌华为北京大学国家发展研究院助理教授，加拿大英属哥伦比亚大学博士，研究方向为国际宏观经济学与国际金融，研究成果发表于Journal of International Economics, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance, IMF economic review。余昌华学术网站：https://sites.google.com/site/changhuay/