[ECON20141713]

能源经济学研讨会

Does urbanization affect energy intensities across provinces in China? 

Long-run elasticities estimation by dynamic panels with heterogeneous slopes

    本次能源经济学研讨会邀请到中国人民大学环境学院环境经济与管理系的博士候选人马本先生做学术讲演。

时间：10月9日，星期四，12:00—13:00

地点：中国人民大学明德主楼729会议室

报告摘要：

  Although there has been extensive literature discussing the impact of urbanization on total energy use and the determinants of China’s declining energy intensity, very little is known regarding whether urbanization exerts significant impacts on both overall and disaggregated energy intensities in the case of China. Using panel datasets at the provincial level from 1986 to 2011, this paper investigates long-run and short-run elasticities of urbanization on energy intensity by estimating dynamic models. To reveal asymmetric impacts by types of energy, coal intensity and electricity intensity are also modeled. A set of newly developed regression techniques, particularly well-performed common correlated effects mean group (CCEMG) and augmented mean group (AMG) estimators, are used to treat residual cross-sectional dependence, nonstationary residuals, and unlikely-to-hold homogeneous slope assumptions. The results obtained verify that the net effects of urbanization on overall energy intensity and electricity intensity are statistically positive, with long-run elasticities of 0.14 to 0.37% and 0.23 to 0.29%, respectively. Nevertheless, China’s urbanization does not significantly drive up coal intensity. Together with elasticities of income level and industrialization, the present models can partially explain the declining energy intensities observed over the past three decades in China. The findings also illustrate that for a panel-data model estimated by traditional approaches, error cross-sectional dependence and residual stationarity must be tested and properly treated to avoid possible size distortion and biased estimators, especially when energy intensity on regional dimension is modeled within large and fast-developing countries, such as China.

作者简介： 

    马本，中国人民大学环境学院环境经济与管理系（人口、资源与环境经济学）博士候选人，国家建设高水平大学公派留学项目“中国人民大学-美国纽约州立大学/雪城大学”联合培养博士研究生。其主要研究领域为能源经济、环境经济、制度经济与应用计量经济。目前，马本先生已在国内外期刊发表论文十余篇，包括“Explaining Sectoral Discrepancies between National and Provincial Statistics in China”，“Diffusion of Solar Water Heaters in Regional China: Economic Feasibility and Policy Effectiveness Evaluation”以及“China’s transition to green energy systems: the economics of home solar water heaters and their popularization in Dezhou city”等等。

　　   能源经济学研讨会（Energy Economics Seminar）由中国人民大学经济学院能源经济系定期推出，旨在为研究中国能源经济问题的学者提供一个交流的平台。 

 联系人：宋枫（songfeng@ruc.edu.cn）  

中国人民大学 经济学院能源经济系