【ECON20161211】
宏观经济学研讨会 （总第206期）  
【时间】2016年9月14日（周三）12：15－13：45 【地点】明商0302教室 【主讲】刘凯 中国人民大学经济学院助理教授，剑桥大学博士 【主题】Dilemma not Trilemma：The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence (Rey, NBER Working Paper, 2015) 【摘要】There is a global financial cycle in capital flows, asset prices and in credit growth. This cycle co-moves with the VIX, a measure of uncertainty and risk aversion of the markets. Asset markets in countries with more credit inflows are more sensitive to the global cycle. The global financial cycle is not aligned with countries’ specific macroeconomic conditions. Symptoms can go from benign to large asset price bubbles and excess credit creation, which are among the best predictors of financial crises. A VAR analysis suggests that one of the determinants of the global financial cycle is monetary policy in the center country, which affects leverage of global banks, capital flows and credit growth in the international financial system. Whenever capital is freely mobile, the global financial cycle constrains national monetary policies regardless of the exchange rate regime. 【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。 联系人：刘哲希    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com 资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html 更多讲座信息请访问：econ.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn  
  经济学院 中国经济改革与发展研究院