【ECON20191203】   

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第258期）      

【时间】2019年3月27日（周三）12：15－13：45          

【地点】明商0202教室          

【主讲】陈小亮 中国社会科学院经济研究所          

【主题】Demographics and Automation（Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, NBER Working Paper, 2018）          

【摘要】We argue theoretically and document empirically that aging leads to greater (industrial) automation, and in particular, to more intensive use and development of robots. Using US data, we document that robots substitute for middle-aged workers (those between the ages of 36 and 55). We then show that demographic change—corresponding to an increasing ratio of older to middle-aged workers—is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries and with more robotics-related activities across US commuting zones. We also provide evidence of more rapid development of automation technologies in countries undergoing greater demographic change. Our directed technological change model further predicts that the induced adoption of automation technology should be more pronounced in industries that rely more on middle-aged workers and those that present greater opportunities for automation. Both of these predictions receive support from country-industry variation in the adoption of robots. Our model also implies that the productivity implications of aging are ambiguous when technology responds to demographic change, but we should expect productivity to increase and labor share to decline relatively in industries that are most amenable to automation, and this is indeed the pattern we find in the data.          ________________________________________          人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型，并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。          

联系人：王兆瑞    Email：Macro_Workshop@163.com          

资料下载：www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html          

更多讲座信息请访问：econ.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn。      

中国人民大学经济学院

中国经济改革与发展研究院