数量经济学研讨会

【201401】

报告题目：Inconsistencies in Pork Statistics in China

报告人： Professor Xiaohua Yu (于晓华)

报告时间：2014年01月07日下午12:30-13:30

报告地点：明德主楼729

内容简介：

Official agricultural statistics for China are subject to major inconsistencies and have long been questioned by researchers. The major problem with Chinese meat statistics is that reported meat supply is far greater than consumption, and this is particularly true for pork. Factors contributing to the gap between pork supply and consumption include production over-reporting, loss and waste in the pork supply chain, pork consumed away from home (FAFH), and a mismatch in the Chinese rural household survey between food and mouths (i.e. migrant workers and boarding students who are counted as rural household members but live in urban areas for much of the year). Our estimates indicate that over-reporting of pork production has declined substantially since 2003, but it is still significant and is the largest contributor to the gap between reported supply and consumption. Our estimates also indicate that pork consumption is significantly under-estimated because of FAFH and the rural mismatch between food and mouths. Reforms to the agricultural statistical system should be considered that increase the incentives to report accurate production statistics. Statistics are currently based on reports from local officials who have incentives to inflate production figures so as to improve their performance reviews and prospects for promotion, or they are overseen by local statistical personnel appointed by local governments.

报告人简介：

于晓华，德国哥廷根大学农业经济和农业发展系教授。他于2009年获得宾州州立大学博士学位，主要研究方向为Agricultural Economics, Development Economics, 和Environmental Economics等。他是期刊Agricultural Economics的现任Associate-Editor。他已在China Economic Review, Agricultural Economics 和American Journal of Agricultural Economics等英文期刊上发表了多篇文章。

中国人民大学经济学院数量经济教研室

中国人民大学运筹学与数量经济研究所

2014年01月

为了加强与国内外高水平数量经济学学者的交流和合作，更好地促进数量经济学与院内其他学科之间的合作交流，数量经济学教研室将举办数量经济学研讨会。研讨会侧重于理论计量经济学、应用计量经济学及数理经济学的最新研究成果，欢迎各位学者参加或报告。如果您有研究成果想要报告，请与数量经济学教研室章永辉博士联系（yonghui.zhang@hotmail.com）。