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[能源经济学研讨会]Adaptation to Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture: the Role of Crop Attributes in Farmland Value Formation

发文时间：2014-10-08

[ECON20141714]

能源经济学研讨会

Adaptation to Climate Change on U.S. Agriculture: the Role of Crop Attributes in Farmland Value Formation

本次能源经济学研讨会邀请到密歇根州立大学的王晨光做学术讲演。

时间：10月11日，星期六，11:30—12:30

地点：中国人民大学明德主楼734会议室

报告摘要：
   The paper econometrically estimates a joint structural model of crop choices and farmland value using U.S. county-level historical data for 1978-2007. The differential returns to growing two-dozen field crops across different counties is captured through a series of interactions between crop prices, county soil and climate characteristics, and quantifiable crop attributes (e.g. root depth and stomata density) that correlate with yield response to climate and soil conditions. Thus, my model allows me to study the heterogeneous impacts of climate change on agricultural chain (from crop yield to land use choice and farmland value) across counties. Holding crop prices fixed at historical levels, I predict county-level changes in farmland value due to marginal changes in climate. I find that a one-centimeter decrease in rainfall under rainfall deficiency condition during the growing season leads to changes in county farmland value ranging from -160% to -0.2%, while one-centimeter increase in rainfall under rainfall surplus condition leads to changes in farmland value ranging from -3.1% to +53%. Meanwhile, one-degree decrease in temperature under cold stress leads to changes in county farmland value ranging from -103.8% to +0.8%, while a one-degree increase in temperature under heat stress leads to changes in farmland value ranging from -13.3% to +0.1%. My results imply that a uniform 5°F increase in temperature and 8% increase in precipitation across all U.S. counties would lead to an overall increase in U.S. farmland values of 5%. Moreover, the selective adaptation of crop attributes via the adoption of new crops, new crop varieties, and attribute-enhancing chemicals would likely reinforce the beneficial impacts of climate change.
作者简介：
   王晨光是密歇根州立大学的“农业经济”和“食品与资源经济学”博士候选人，其主要研究领域为农业与资源环境经济学（气候变化, 土地使用, 能源政策等）。目前，王晨光已在国内外期刊发表多篇论文，包括““Effect of Outdoor Storage Losses on Feedstock Inventory Management and Plant-Gate Cost for a Switchgrass Conversion Facility in East Tennessee” ，“Cost Evaluation of Alternative Switchgrass Producing, Harvesting, Storing, and Transporting Systems and their Logistics in the Southeastern U.S.”以及“Effect of Low Temperature Stress on Cold-Resistance Ability of Rice Seedlings”等。
   能源经济学研讨会（Energy Economics Seminar）由中国人民大学经济学院能源经济系定期推出，旨在为研究中国能源经济问题的学者提供一个交流的平台。

联系人：宋枫（songfeng@ruc.edu.cn）

中国人民大学经济学院能源经济系

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