【ECON201218】

宏观经济学研讨会

（总第123期）

【时间】2012年11月13日（周二）12：15－13：45

【地点】明主0409教室

【主讲】夏晓华 博士 中国人民大学改革与发展研究院讲师。中山大学岭南学院金融学博士，北京大学经济学院应用经济学博士后。
　　　　【主题】Credit Booms Gone Bust: Monetary Policy, Leverage Cycles, and Financial Crises, 1870-2008（written by Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor, American Economic Review, 2012）
　　　　【摘要】The crisis of the advanced economies in 2008-09 has focused new attention on money and credit fluctuations, financial crises, and policy responses. We study the behavior of money, credit, and macroeconomic indicators over the long run based on a new historical dataset for countries over the years 1870-2008, using the data to study rare events asso- ciated with financial crisis episode. We present new evidence that leverage in the financial sector has increased strongly in the second half of the twentieth century as shown by a decoupling of money and credit aggregates. We show for the first time how money policy responses to financial crises have been more aggressive post-1945, but how monetary policy responses to financial crises have remained large. Importantly, we demonstrate that credit growth is a powerful predictor of financial crises, suggesting that such crises are credit booms gone wrong and that policymakers ignore credit at their peril. It is only with the long-run comparative data assembled for this paper that these patterns can be seen clearly.
　　　　 【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会（Macro Workshop）旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展，倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型（尤其是Bewley模型）并使用计算机模拟研究中国经济改革与发展的重大问题。

联系人：陈伟泽　　E_mail: sysu2006vc@126.com

更多讲座信息欢迎访问se.ruc.edu.cn，www.yanjiuyuan.com.cn

经济学院

中国经济改革与发展研究院