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[能源经济学研讨会]Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China’s power sector planning
发文时间：2014-06-13

[ECON20141406]

能源经济学研讨会

 【总第43期】

Nonlinear integrated resource strategic planning model and case study in China’s power sector planning



本次能源经济学研讨会邀请到华北电力大学经济与管理学院副教授袁家海先生做学术讲演。

时间：6月18日，星期三，13:00—14:00
地点：中国人民大学明德主楼734会议室


报告摘要：

In this paper we expand the IRSP (integrated resource strategic planning) model by including the external cost of TPPs (traditional power plants) and popularization cost of EPPs (efficiency power plants) with nonlinear functions. Case studies for power planning in China during 2011-2021 are conducted to show the efficacy of the model. Scenarios are compiled to compare the pathways of power planning under different policies.Results show that: 1) wind power will become competitive with technical learning, but its installation is undesirable when the external cost of coal power is not internalized; 2) the existence of popularization cost will hinder EPPs’ (efficiency power plants) deployment and pure market mechanism is not enough to deliver EPPs at socially desirable scale; 3) imposition of progressive emission tax on coal power at an average of 0.15e0.20 RMB/KWh can remedy the market distortion and promote the development of wind power by a significant margin; 4) nuclear power will grow stably when its external cost is set no more than 0.187 RMB per KWh, or 87% of its internal cost. The proposed model can serve as a useful tool for decision support in the process of power planning and policy formulation for national government.
作者简介：         

        袁家海先生现为华北电力大学经济与管理学院副教授；一直从事能源经济、能源政策分析与评价、低碳电力转型与规划等领域问题的研究。2004年以来公开发表论文60余篇，其中在国际权威期刊发表高水平学术论文16篇；出版（主编或参编）著作4部；主持教育部人文社科基金1项，参与国家自然科学基金等省部级以上课题6项，参与国家电网公司、国网能源研究院、华东电网公司课题多项。两次入选华北电力大学“151人才工程”青年骨干计划；2013年入选北京市青年英才计划。中国电机工程学会动能经济专业委员会委员，Energy、Energy Economics、Energy Policy等10余份国际期刊审稿人。


        能源经济学研讨会（Energy Economics Seminar）由中国人民大学经济学院能源经济系定期推出，旨在为研究中国能源经济问题的学者提供一个交流的平台。 

　　　 联系人：宋枫（songfeng@ruc.edu.cn）  


　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 中国人民大学 经济学院能源经济系
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