劳动经济学研讨会         

（总第54期）      

【时  间】2019年4月25日（周四）12:00－13:30          

【地  点】明德主楼734会议室          

【主  题】Housing Wealth Shocks and Fertility Choice: Evidence from China          

【主讲人】刘  宏（中央财经大学中国经济与管理研究院教授）          

【主持人】孙文凯（中国人民大学经济学院教授）          

【点评人】陆方文（中国人民大学经济学院教授）          

【摘  要】This paper examines the impact of housing wealth on fertility decisions by exploiting housing wealth variation supplied by the recent housing boom in China. Using data from the CFPS 2010–2016, we find that for a 100,000 yuan increase in lagged home values, the likelihood that home-owning women give a birth falls by 5.8%. We also show that an increase housing wealth leads to a reduction in total fertility rate and that the fertility decisions of women who have higher household income, more education, no siblings, and live in urban areas are more responsive to housing wealth growth. We further investigate the underlying mechanisms and the results are consistent with our hypotheses about the living cost effect and old-age security effect of house price increase. These findings have important policy implication given the low fertility rate in China.          

【主讲人简介】刘宏，2007年毕业于纽约州立大学石溪分校，获经济学博士学位。2007年至今在中央财经大学中国经济与管理研究院从事科研与教学工作，现任“龙马学者”特聘教授、博士生导师，主要研究领域包括健康经济学、劳动经济学和发展经济学。在Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of Population Economics, Health Economics等国际学术期刊上发表多篇英文论文；在《经济研究》、《经济学季刊》、《世界经济》上发表中文论文多篇；主持国家自科基金课题2项、教育部纵向课题2项。2012年入选教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划。