讲座主题：rural-urban migration and agricultural fires

城乡移民与秸秆焚烧

主办：中国人民大学经济学院

时间：2026年5月29日（周五） 9:00-10:30

地点：明德主楼623会议室

主讲人：郭士祺

主持人：干天琪

讲座摘要：

This paper quantifies the impact of rural-to-urban migration on agricultural fires in China, a major source of seasonal air pollution. Using satellite fire records and census data, we instrument rural labor emigration with a shift-share variable that combines prefecture-level exposure to a manufacturing trade shock with historical migration networks, isolating exogenous variation in labor outflows driven by urban demand. A one-percentage-point increase in the 2010 rural emigration rate is associated with a 4.8% rise in agricultural fires over 2011–2017. The effect operates through agricultural labor scarcity: as farm labor drains away, open burning becomes the least-cost method of residue disposal for smallholders facing acute harvest-season time pressure. Consistent with this, only rural agricultural emigrants increase burning, and only when migration distance is long enough to prevent seasonal return; the effect concentrates precisely in peak harvest months. Critically, this mechanism hinges on land tenure frictions: because insecure tenure discourages land leasing, labor-scarce households cannot exit smallholder farming, and burning remains their only viable option for residue disposal. We then show that China's land titling reforms, by securing tenure and enabling farmland consolidation, offer a more durable solution by breaking the emigration–fire link, while province-wide administrative burning bans address the symptom without resolving the underlying friction.

主讲人介绍：

郭士祺，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院副教授。2021年博士毕业于日内瓦国际关系及发展高等研究院，曾在哈佛大学、联合国大学世界发展经济学研究所访问。主要研究领域为发展经济学、应用微观经济学，有多篇文章被国内外权威期刊发表，包括The Economic Journal，Journal of Development Economics (2篇)，Games and Economic Behavior, Journal of Law and Economics，American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics,《经济研究》(3篇)。主持国家自然科学基金青年项目，上海市浦江人才计划。