[宏观经济学研讨会]Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution?



【主讲】周璇 中国人民大学经济学院助理教授
【主题】Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution?(Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, NBER Working Paper, 2017)
【摘要】The obvious lesson from the Great Financial Crisis is that the financial system matters and financial crises will probably happen again. The second, more general, lesson is that the economy is often not self-stabilizing. These two lessons, together with an environment where neutral interest rates are likely to remain low, have clear implications for the design of stabilization policies. At a minimum, they suggest that policies may need to become more aggressive, both ex-ante and ex-post, with a rebalancing of the roles of monetary, fiscal and financial policies. In particular, while low neutral rates decrease the scope for using monetary policy, they increase the scope for using fiscal policy. Think of such rebalancing as evolution. If however, neutral rates become even lower, or financial regulation turns out to be insufficient to prevent crises, more dramatic measures, including larger fiscal deficits, revised monetary policy targets, or sharper restrictions on the financial system, may be needed. Think of this as revolution. Time will tell.
【主持】陈彦斌 教授

    人大宏观经济学研讨会(Macro Workshop)旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展,倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型,并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。
联系人:刘哲希    Email:Macro_Workshop@163.com



人大经济论坛 rdjjlt.org 人大经济论坛 bbs.econ.ruc.edu.cn