[宏观经济学研讨会]On Interest Rate Policy and Asset Bubbles


【主讲】刘哲希 中国人民大学经济学院
【主题】On Interest Rate Policy and Asset Bubbles(Franklin Allen et al., FRB of Chicago Working Paper, 2017)
【摘要】In a provocative paper, Galí (2014) showed that a policymaker who raises interest rates to rein in a potential bubble will only make a bubble bigger if one exists. This poses a challenge to advocates of lean-against-the-wind policies that call for raising interest rates to mitigate potential bubbles. In this paper, we argue there are situations in which the lean-against-the wind view is justified. First, we argue Galí’s framework abstracts from the possibility that a policymaker who raises rates will crowd out resources that would have otherwise been spent on the bubble. Once we modify Galí’s model to allow for this possibility, policymakers can intervene in ways that raise interest rates and dampen bubbles. However, there is no reason policymakers should intervene to dampen the bubble in this case, since the bubble that arises in Galí’s setup is not one that society would be better o¤ without. We then further modify Galí’s model to generate the type of credit-driven bubbles that alarm policymakers, and argue there may be justification for intervention in that case.
【主持】陈彦斌 教授
    人大宏观经济学研讨会(Macro Workshop)旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展,倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型,并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。
联系人:刘哲希    Email:Macro_Workshop@163.com


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