[宏观经济学研讨会]The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle
【主讲】陈小亮 中国社会科学研究院经济研究所
【主题】The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle(A. McKay & R. Reis, Econometrica, 2016)
【点评】薛涧坡 中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授
【摘要】Most countries have automatic rules in their tax-and-transfer systems that are partly intended to stabilize economic fluctuations. This paper measures how effective they are. We put forward a model that merges the standard incomplete-markets model of consumption and inequality with the new Keynesian model of nominal rigidities and business cycles, and that includes most of the main potential stabilizers in the U.S. data, as well as the theoretical channels by which they may work. We find that the conventional argument that stabilizing disposable income will stabilize aggregate demand plays a negligible role on the effectiveness of the stabilizers, whereas tax-and-transfer programs that affect inequality and social insurance can have a large effect on aggregate volatility. However, as currently designed, the set of stabilizers in place in the United States has barely had any effect on volatility. According to our model, expanding safety-net programs, like food stamps, has the largest potential to enhance the effectiveness of the stabilizers.【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会(Macro Workshop)旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展,倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型,并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。
联系人:刘哲希    Email:Macro_Workshop@163.com
人大经济论坛 rdjjlt.org 人大经济论坛 bbs.econ.ruc.edu.cn