[宏观经济学研讨会]Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility
【主讲】黄源 中国人民大学经济学院
【主题】 Financial Frictions and Fluctuations in Volatility(C. Arellano, NBER Working Paper, 2016)
【摘要】During the recent U.S. financial crisis, the large decline in economic activity and credit was accompanied by a large increase in the dispersion of growth rates across firms. However, even though aggregate labor and output fell sharply during this period, labor productivity did not. These features motivate us to build a model in which increased volatility at the firm level generates a downturn but has little effect on labor productivity. In the model, hiring inputs is risky because financial frictions limit firms` ability to insure against shocks that occur between the time of production and the receipt of revenues. Hence, an increase in idiosyncratic volatility induces firms to reduce their inputs to reduce such risk. We find that our model can generate about 67% of the decline in output of the Great Recession of 2007–2009.
【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会(Macro Workshop)旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展,倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型,并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。
联系人:刘哲希    Email:Macro_Workshop@163.com
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