[宏观经济学研讨会]Household Leverage and the Recession
【主讲】陈朴 中国人民大学经济学院
【主题】Household Leverage and the Recession (V. Midrigan & T. Philippon Working Paper, 2016)
【点评】刘凯 中国人民大学经济学院助理教授
【摘要】A salient feature of the 2007-2010 Great Recession is that states that experienced
the largest declines in household debt also experienced the largest contraction in employment. We study an economy in which household liquidity constraints amplify the response of employment to changes in household debt. We estimate the model using data on consumption, employment, wages and household debt in a panel of U.S. states. The model predicts that the 25% decline in U.S. household debt in this period led to a 1.5% drop in the natural rate of interest, far too small compared to the 4.5% short-term interest rate observed in the U.S. at the onset of the recession. Shocks to household debt, on their own, are thus incapable of explaining the large drop in U.S. employment, since they can be offset by monetary policy. The effect of such shocks is amplified, however, if the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates binds for other reasons.
【主持】陈彦斌 教授

人大宏观经济学研讨会(Macro Workshop)旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展,倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型,并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。
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