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[宏观经济学研讨会]The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations
发布日期:2017-04-24
【ECON20171206】
宏观经济学研讨会
(总第221期)
 
【时间】2016年4月26日(周三)12:15-13:45
【地点】明商0302教室
【主讲】韩少华 中国人民大学汉青经济与金融高级研究院
【主题】The Permanent Effects of Fiscal Consolidations (A. Fatas & L. Summers, NBER Working Paper, 2016)
【摘要】The global financial crisis has permanently lowered the path of GDP in all advanced economies.At the same time, and in response to rising government debt levels, many of these countries have been engaging in fiscal consolidations that have had a negative impact on growth rates. We empirically explore the connections between these two facts by extending to longer horizons the methodology of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) regarding fiscal policy multipliers. Our results provide support for the presence of strong hysteresis effects of fiscal policy. The large size of the effects points in the direction of self-defeating fiscal consolidations as suggested by DeLong and Summers (2012). Attempts to reduce debt via fiscal consolidations have very likely resulted in a higher debt to GDP ratio through their long-term negative impact on output.
【点评】陈小亮 中国社会科学院经济研究所
【主持】陈彦斌 教授


人大宏观经济学研讨会(Macro Workshop)旨在追踪宏观经济学国际最新进展,倡导构建符合国情的动态优化模型,并使用计算机模拟研究经济增长、收入分配和宏观政策等中国宏观经济重大问题。
联系人:刘哲希    Email:Macro_Workshop@163.com
资料下载:www.docin.com/mydoc-88265459-1.html
 
 
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